Business

Notes on the Week Ahead

by Dr. David Kelly

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Latest episodes

A Season of Moderation in the Year of Boom and Doom

October 12, 2026 · 14 min

This has been a year of distinct seasons for financial markets. The first quarter was dominated by the joint U.S./Israeli attack on Iran and its aftermath. The second was about booming tech earnings. The third quarter saw a sharp rise in…
The PCE-CPI Gap and the Outlook for Further Fed Tightening

September 21, 2026 · 12 min

On balance, I don’t believe that the Federal Reserve should have raised interest rates last week. However, I must confess that there was one reference in Chairman Warsh’s press conference that left me distinctly uneasy. He noted that…
The Fed Paints itself into a Rate-Hiking Corner

September 14, 2026 · 11 min

In the Broadway musical, Fiddler on the Roof, Tevye, the well-meaning patriarch of a poor family, has to make some tough choices in a complicated time. Tevye, (who always reminded me of my father-in-law, Bill), has trouble deciding and…
The New, New Normal

September 8, 2026 · 12 min

The era of low growth, low inflation and super-low interest rates that followed the Great Financial Crisis was christened by Mohamed El-Erian as “The New Normal”. While this episode largely came to an end with the post-pandemic growth and…
Labor Market Mysteries

August 31, 2026 · 10 min

In a generally upbeat Jackson Hole speech on Friday, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh asserted that “labor markets are consistent with full employment”. Given that the current unemployment rate, at 4.1%, is the lowest it’s been in 18 months and is…

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The Road to $40 Trillion

August 25, 2026 · 15 min

Money was tight in our early married years. We bought a house we couldn’t afford, purchased a car we couldn’t afford and had all the expenses attendant on the raising of two young boys. However, as we wandered the local mall gazing at all…
What Lies Beneath: An Updated Outlook on the Economy and Investing

August 10, 2026 · 13 min

The summer of 2026 has been dominated by the AI boom. Some fear that AI is advancing too quickly for thoughtful regulation. Others worry that end-user revenues will lag too far behind massive capital spending and fast-growing debt. From an…
The People versus Inflation

July 27, 2026 · 16 min

No one liked the defendant. That much was clear. But when the jury retired to consider their verdict, they hardly knew where to start. The case was so confusing and the judge’s instructions hardly seemed adequate. “Perhaps”, suggested the…
A Top Down View of the Earnings Surge

July 20, 2026 · 16 min

The earnings season has started with a blast. As of Friday morning, 49 of the S&P500 companies had reported second-quarter earnings, with 85% beating expectations and the index on track for a blockbuster 23% year-over-year gain for the…
The Fed Communications Debate: Bernanke Versus Warsh

July 13, 2026 · 16 min

Alan Greenspan, who served as Fed Chairman for almost 20 years, died last month at the age of 100. He was a talented and faithful public servant who guided U.S. monetary policy through the stock market crash of 1987, the boom years of the…
Consumer Sentiment and the Stock Market

July 6, 2026 · 12 min

Despite very average economic performance, consumer sentiment remains at extraordinarily low levels. While there are many interesting aspects to this phenomenon, one is of particular relevance to investors. As we show on page 32 of the…
The Healing of Housing

June 29, 2026 · 12 min

In the pantheon of running injuries, there is a well-established hierarchy. A recreational runner, finishing any marathon, or exerting themselves at half that distance, can expect to come down with delayed onset muscle soreness, otherwise…